This is a guest post by Nathan Paxton. As social scientists, at least as regards what we can empirically assess, we tend to make statements of probability rather than fact. So rather than say that ...

You're sitting in the doctor's office waiting for the result of a test. The test will tell you whether you have a disease you really don't want to have. As you wait, it seems as if the whole world is ...

Nate Silver, baseball statistician turned political analyst, gained a lot of attention during the 2012 United States elections when he successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential vote in ...